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» LymeNet Flash » Questions and Discussion » General Support » Forget Counting Cases- Let's Just Guess

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Author Topic: Forget Counting Cases- Let's Just Guess
Tincup
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Forget Counting Cases- It's TOO HARD! Let's Just Guess!

Zoonoses Public Health. 2016 Feb 29. doi: 10.1111/zph.12261. [Epub ahead of print]

Lyme Disease Surveillance Using Sampling Estimation: Evaluation of an Alternative Methodology in New York State.

Lukacik G1, White J1, Noonan-Toly C1, DiDonato C2, Backenson PB1.
Author information

1New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USA.
2NTT Data Inc., Albany, NY, USA.
Abstract

In the 14-year period from 1993 to 2006, New York State (NYS) accounted for over one-quarter (27.1%) of all confirmed Lyme disease (LD) cases in the United States.

During that time period, a nine-county area in south-east NYS accounted for 90.6% of the reported LD cases in the state.

Based on concerns related to diminishing resources at both the state and local level and the increasing burden of traditional LD surveillance,

the NYS Department of Health (DOH) sought to develop an alternative to traditional surveillance that would reduce the investigative workload while maintaining the ability to track LD trends by developing a system to estimate county-level LD cases based on a 20% random sample of positive laboratory reports.

Estimates from this system were compared to observed cases from traditional surveillance for select counties in 2007-2009 and 2011.

There were no significant differences between the two methodologies in six of nine evaluations conducted. In addition, in 93 of 98 (94.9%) demographic, symptom and other variable proportion comparisons made between the two methodologies in 2009 and 2011, there were no significant differences found.

Overall, using sampling estimates was accurate and efficient in estimating LD cases at the county level. Use of case estimates for LD should be considered as a useful surveillance alternative by health policy makers for states with endemic LD.


© 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
KEYWORDS:

Lyme disease; sampling estimation; surveillance
PMID:

26924579

[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

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TxCoord
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Guessing means they would have to employ a high level math person to "estimate" and then present it in a form that the gov't, who could care less (unless it affected them or family), could understand.

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Posts: 665 | From Lost Wages, NV | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Tincup
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HA! You've got it!

It occurred to me they would still need some to fill out the reports so they can estimate cases from around each state.

This is a bad thing. Funding relies a lot on the number of cases. We've already been shorted by the CDC for decades now due to their poor surveillance program.

I can't see where this will help.

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Razzle
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I think it is another political maneuver to shut down the "chronic Lyme" debate. Cut funding to reduce cases reported, which then further reduces reports of cases, etc., thus showing no need to fund research...

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-Razzle
Lyme IgM IGeneX Pos. 18+++, 23-25+, 30++, 31+, 34++, 39 IND, 83-93 IND; IgG IGeneX Neg. 30+, 39 IND; Mayo/CDC Pos. IgM 23+, 39+; IgG Mayo/CDC Neg. band 41+; Bart. (clinical dx; Fry Labs neg. for all coinfections), sx >30 yrs.

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TxCoord
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When I worked in the oil field and computed oil production for our little platform (the big boss from Gulf Oil was always looking for our platform to produce 1,000 barrels of crude a day).

If our numbers looked a little off he would ask, "Now, Y'all ain't 'boiler housin' them numbers?"
(i.e. making them up)

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