Topic: The epidemics will never end due to accuracy of tests
Brussels
Frequent Contributor (5K+ posts)
Member # 13480
posted
The numbers according to which the government decides whether to open or close public life become less meaningful, the lower the number of infected people.
Even without a single new infected person, thousands of new “cases” would be reported based solely on the error rate of the test.
If the criteria currently used are not changed, the pandemic can - seemingly - continue indefinitely.
KLAUS PFAFFELMOSER, May 24, 2020, 21 comments
Preliminary remark by the editors:
According to current studies, the error rate (false positive rate) of the PCR tests used is at least 1.4%.
For every 100,000 tests carried out, an average of at least 1,400 people are incorrectly identified as "corona infected"
(Supplement 3.6 .: provided that all those tested are "healthy", that is, do not carry any virus material that can be measured by the test).
This is dramatic in the current situation, because in calendar week 20, i.e. in the period from May 11th to 17th, only 1.7% of those examined were tested at all, i.e. 1,700 out of 100,000 people.
(Supplement 3.6 .: According to RKI in KW 22, it is even only 1.0%!)
If one compares these 1,700 with the 1,400 as potential measurement errors, it becomes clear that the figures are hardly meaningful anymore.
Even worse, the results can be easily manipulated if necessary, depending on how many tests are carried out - which can be influenced politically.
The limit discussed by politicians of 35 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants could be achieved, for example, even without actually infected people by simply taking advantage of the measurement error by performing 2,500 tests per 100,000 people.
This would correspond to a fivefold increase in the current number of tests.
From the conclusion of the article:
“The values currently used as parameters for the imposition of measures, the number of acute infections measured per 100,000 inhabitants and the R-value have no meaningful value with regard to the epidemiological development in a small proportion of acute infections in the total population illness.
When the disease disappears, the R-value tends to be 1, that is, to the value currently considered critical. By changing the number of measurements, the parameters can be influenced so that measures can be imposed arbitrarily. "
for more details, do an online translation of the article below
hiker53
Frequent Contributor (5K+ posts)
Member # 6046
posted
I would rather have some false positives for covid19 than false negatives like Lyme tests.
Look at the facts: The states in the USA that have opened up the most have an increase in cases and it is not just due to testing.
I will use the analogy of the birth control pill. The birth control pill is probably over 99% effective at preventing pregnancy. But even some women who use it correctly will get pregnant.
So in my urban area if everyone were to be tested for COVID-19 approximately two people would test positive who don’t really have the disease. That would mean they would be asked to quarantine for two weeks. I think it is worth it to continue testing.
No test is perfect. I am sure Covid 19 has false negatives, too.
(this is a graphic showing 2018-2019 flu epidemics in Europe)
As you can see, there are many epidemic viruses, and many kill too.
Why don't politicians close the countries every year?
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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Brussels
Frequent Contributor (5K+ posts)
Member # 13480
posted
What bothers me is that, instead of protecting the old (average of death here is around 80 years old), no, they close kindergartens, school, businesses.
Lock down measures are killing many small companies, and it will provoke a hunger pandemic (already started) in poorer countries.
Food is blocked at the borders, people lost their incomes, schools are closed (millions of children eat their only nutritious meal at school)...
The lock down will cause about 9 million deaths more (while covid19 has killed 0.5 million so far). 9 million deaths a year MORE of hunger!!
“If we can’t reach these people with the life-saving assistance they need, our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period.”
Just picture the situation: covid 19 killed about 500,000 since Dec- June worldwide.
The hunger caused by lock down measures could kill 300,000 people of hunger in ONE DAY for about 3 months non-stop.
how fair is this?
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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hiker53
Frequent Contributor (5K+ posts)
Member # 6046
posted
Perhaps the USA is in an entirely different situation than Europe.
The areas that tried to open up now have an increased number of cases. The pandemic is not done with the United States at all.
Yes, this virus has hurt the economy. Yes, kids who get meals at school may not get those meals, although many school districts still had meals that could be picked up. It is all very sad.
The United States is 4% of the world's population but has more than 25% of the cases and the most deaths.
USA is different from Europe. Even Europe agrees that the United States has a major problem with this epidemic. There’s a travel ban for US citizens going to Europe. The chancellor of Germany will not come to United States and other heads of state for the G7 summit. They understand how the epidemic is out of control here.
Our politicians had nothing to gain by closing the economies. They wanted to contain the virus. In my area it has worked. Who knows what will happen as we open back up.
-------------------- Hiker53
"God is light. In Him there is no darkness." 1John 1:5 Posts: 8876 | From Illinois | Registered: Aug 2004
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