Topic: Why we can't compare Covid19 to the Spanish flu
Brussels
Frequent Contributor (5K+ posts)
Member # 13480
posted
Spanish flu (lasted 1.5-2 years)1918-1920
World population 1.9 billion in 1917
Spanish flu killed from 17 million to 50 million (or even more, according to some sources)
It killed then 0.89% to 2.6% of the TOTAL population (middle number is about 1.7%)
It was huge!! ----------------------
Today’s population 7.791.000.000
0.89% of deaths would be: 69.339.900 deaths = approximately 70 million deaths (optimistic statistics)
2.6% of deaths would be: 202.566.000 = approximately 200 million deaths (pessimistic statistics)
I wonder how can we compare the Covid19 deaths to the Spanish flu deaths.
It took about 7 months for Covid19 to reach 0.5 million deaths (considering that the first case was said to have happened in China in Nov).
It's missing 69.5 million more people to reach the OPTIMISTIC statistics, that want to compare the Covid19 to the Spanish influenza.
And, it's missing 199,500,000 more deaths to reach the other end of the statistics, the PESSIMISTIC view.
Statistically, there can't be any comparison between this epidemic with the Spanish flu.
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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Brussels
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posted
Just look at countries such as
- Sweden - few measures, Covid19 killed so far 0.052% of the whole population (about 5,300 people).
If it were like the Spanish flu, the optimistic numbers would mean almost 90,000 people. In the next 12-18 months, Sweden has to loose still 85,000 people to Covid19 to be comparable to the Spanish flu.
The pessimistic statistic would mean 260,000 dead in total of 2 years in Sweden. It's still missing 255,000 more deaths in the next 12-18 months!!
- Japan - no lock down measures, one of the first countries to be infected (practically no deaths, few infected).
Population of Japan: 125,000,000 Total deaths so far: about 1,000 If it were the Spanish flu, it would kill 1,100,000 to 3,250,000 !!!
- USA- 331,000,000 inhabitants Total deaths about 130,000 so far. If it were the Spanish flu, it would kill from about 3,000,000 to 8,600,000 people until the end of next year.
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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Brussels
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Member # 13480
posted
Now the tricky part.
why are we all locked down and why our constitutional rights were taken from us?
Because of the WHO, and of Neil fergusson, an Imperial College statistician.
It’s even higher here, as they said death rate is in between 3 and 4%.
Because of the WHO’s high death rate, all countries implemented strict lock down measures. And that wrong model of the Imperial College.
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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Brussels
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Member # 13480
posted
I have to go out now, but I'll compare these death rates from the WHO, with Bill Gates simulation of the corona virus in Oct 2019 predicting 65 or 75 million deaths.
And we can compare these numbers to the Spanish flu deaths.
And we'll understand why our governments decided to take off our rights, to sort of protect us (true, at first).
I gotta go out, I'll come back later
Posts: 6199 | From Brussels | Registered: Oct 2007
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hiker53
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The mortality rate of the 1918 flu might be higher than the Covid 19 rate.
And yet, just like during the 1918 pandemic countries and cities shut down some businesses and quarantined people which helped.
They suggested fresh air just like is suggested today. They required masks to be worn just like my state does.
And cities that opened up too quickly had more deaths than cities who kept businesses closed longer.
So, while the mortality rate may have been higher for the “Spanish flu” than Covid 19 many aspects are similar.
Please don’t get all caught up in the statistics.
Brussels, I fully understand that you believe that governments are keeping the economy closed on purpose and that your rights are being violated.
I understand that you believe politicians and science experts are not stressing supplements that might have potential to help the immune system.
I’m understand you feel hydrochloroquine is more effective than USA studies show.
I understand that you feel the tests designed might be faulty.
You have a right to believe this.
But try to focus on the positive or your immune system will take a hit. I am sure you can find the studies that support that positive thinking helps the immune system.
Every day I wake up is a gift and I look for the blessings God has put into each day.
-------------------- Hiker53
"God is light. In Him there is no darkness." 1John 1:5 Posts: 8885 | From Illinois | Registered: Aug 2004
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Ann-Ohio
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Member # 44364
posted
Thanks for this great reply, hiker!
I lost some relatives in the great flu epidemic so many years ago.
And I have one relative who luckily survived COVID-19 - so far. No way of knowing what the afterward of it will bring - immunity? Chronic symptoms? etc. etc.
Best to use time figuring out how to help others when so much is needed.
-------------------- Ann-OH Posts: 1589 | From Ohio | Registered: Aug 2014
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posted
Please don't forget this virus is just now getting established. It's too soon to start comparing statistics.
Now is the time focus on keeping ourselves and others safe.
If it eventually proves to be less deadly than the Spanish Flu, it still won't be a mistake to be careful now.
If this virus kills the same percentage of the population as the Spanish flu, the numbers will become unbelievable. Not believing won't change reality.
For those of us with compromised immune systems, staying safe is the best thing we can focus on.
Posts: 552 | From New Mexico, USA | Registered: May 2007
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posted
Do you know that the Spanish flu then mutated into a simple SARS?
Posts: 3 | From Miami | Registered: Dec 2020
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hiker53
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Member # 6046
posted
SamtoSam—The Spanish flu was a H1N1 virus and it simply mutated to a less lethal form of the H1N1. It did not change into a different type of virus. Too dissimilar.
-------------------- Hiker53
"God is light. In Him there is no darkness." 1John 1:5 Posts: 8885 | From Illinois | Registered: Aug 2004
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Ann-Ohio
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Member # 44364
posted
Thanks,Hiker!
The internet has supplied with too much information, most without real documentation or purpose (except to incite anger and fear.)
Daisys, I am with you. Any death is very sad, counting and comparing doesn't make it any easier for me or those who loved that person.
Best to concentrate how to get through this safely and to try to help others along the way.
See what you can do locally - maybe try to help those who need food by donation to the local food bank.
-------------------- Ann-OH Posts: 1589 | From Ohio | Registered: Aug 2014
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